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NOAA predicts tamer hurricane season but cites some forecast uncertainty

NOAA, hurricane,storm,Atlantic, PacificThe U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today forecast a  hurricane season (June to November) in the Atlantic tamer than the one in 2008, which featured 16 storms severe enough to be named. But NOAA's hedging its bets, noting in a statement that "global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years."

According to the agency, there's a 70 percent chance of nine to 14 named Atlantic storms this year, as many as seven of those with the potential to become hurricanes, which feature winds in excess of 74 miles (121 kilometers) per hour. As many as three could reach "major hurricane" status, meaning their winds blow at more than 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour. (An average Atlantic season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes with two becoming major hurricanes.) Hurricanes originate as "tropical systems" once they reach sustained winds of at least 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour. At the time a weather pattern is dubbed a "tropical system," it's also given a name. The name of this year's first storm will be Ana.

Hurricane season ends, bringing record storms

A record number of consecutive hurricanes made landfall on the U.S. East Coast this year, making it one of the most active storm seasons ever, government meteorologists report today.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends Sunday, delivered a total of 16 named storms, including six consecutive tropical cyclones — Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike — to the mainland. Eight were hurricanes, five of which were major storms of Category 3 strength or more, the National Hurricane Center says. (Category 3 storms carry winds of 111-to-130 miles, or 178-to-209 kilometers, per hour.)

Hurricane Paloma eyes Cuba as it becomes a Category 4 storm

The hurricane-battered island of Cuba will likely suffer more damage this weekend at the hands of Hurricane Paloma, which strengthened this morning into an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm.

As of 7 a.m. Eastern Time Saturday, after dumping rain on the Cayman Islands, Paloma was traveling northeast at about 8 mph (13 km/hr), packing winds of 140 mph (225 km/hr), according to the National Hurricane Center.

It is on track to make landfall in Cuba at about 1 a.m. Sunday, probably just slightly weaker than its current strength, and could produce up to 20 feet of storm surge along the coast there.

The Caymans and Cuba are expected to get up to ten inches (25 cm) of rain by the time the storm passes. Jamaica will likely get about 1-3 inches (2.5-7.5 cm) of rain.

Tropical Storm Paloma could hit battered Cuba

Ay, Paloma!

An exotically named tropical storm is eyeing weather-weary Cuba and could strengthen to a hurricane by tomorrow, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 10 a.m. Eastern time, Paloma was 75 miles (115 kilometers) Northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border and about 265 miles (430 kilometers) south-southwest of Grand Cayman, the agency reported. Winds were gusting as fast as 45 miles (75 kilometers) per hour.

Paloma is expected to bring up to a foot of rain to the Cayman Islands, and two to four inches in Nicaragua. It could pass over Cuba and Jamaica by Sunday, and strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 96 miles (154 kilometers) per hour, Reuters reports.

Hurricane Omar on track for Caribbean

Here comes another hurricane.

Omar could bring up to 20 inches of rain across Puerto Rico and the Northern Leeward islands — and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides — when it arrives over the next 24-36 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Omar is the 15th tropical storm of the season; a typical hurricane season brings 10 storms, according to Reuters. This season ends November 30.

Right now, Omar is a Category 1 hurricane with winds near 80 miles per hour (130 kilometers per hour). Forecasters say it could become a category 2 hurricane with winds up to 96 miles per hour (154 kilometers per hour) by the time it hits the northern Caribbean, producing coastal storm surges, swells and large waves that could erode beaches.

Typhoons lashing Asia

Typhoon season is lasting longer than usual in Asia, with the region battling two storms and expecting a third.

At least two people are dead and 58 injured after Typhoon Jangmi battered Taiwan with flash floods and landslides yesterday, Agence-France Presse reports. The tropical storm made landfall in eastern China tonight.

Another storm, Typhoon Hagupit, killed 41 people in Vietnam last week after barreling through China's southern Guangdong Province, the newswire reported.

Jangmi was a Category 4 hurricane with winds up to 124 miles (200 kilometers) per hour before being downgraded to a Category 1 storm, Reuters is reporting. It caused more than half a million people to be evacuated from China's northern Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, and 80,000 boats to be called back to harbor, according to Xinhua, China's state-run news agency. Winds there are expected at 78 miles (126 kilometers) per hour, Xinhua says.

NOAA chief Conrad Lautenbacher resigns

The chief of the federal agency that keeps watch over US waters and weather patterns has resigned after seven years at the helm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).

Retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere, announced his resignation today. His last day on the job is Oct. 31.

The announcement on the NOAA Web site doesn’t say why Lautenbacher is stepping down from his post. But Anson Franklin, a NOAA spokesman, said the resignation isn't unexpected. "I don’t think it's been a surprise to anybody," Franklin tells us. "He's been here for almost seven years, which is a lifetime for political appointees. He's made it clear for a year or so that he'd probably depart before the end of the administration and ended up staying on. He feels he's completed the major projects he was working on and was just ready to move on."

Midwest braces for Hurricane Ike's three-day trip north after Galveston floods

After making landfall at 3:10 a.m. this morning near Galveston as a Category 2 storm, Hurricane Ike's eye was just northeast of Conroe, Texas as of 8 a.m. CDT, according to the National Hurricane Center. With winds of 90 miles per hour (145 km/hr), it is now a Category 1 storm.

Overnight, Ike flooded Galveston's historic district and left all of Galveston County without power, the Galveston County Office of Emergency Management reported on its Web site. Four million people in Houston also lost power.

Officials have blamed Ike for three deaths. All 22 people aboard a Cypriot freighter that was caught in the storm off the coast of Texas were safe, however, according to the Coast Guard, which had earlier abandoned efforts to rescue the crew because of Ike.

Meteorologists to Texans: Get out of town before Hurricane Ike hits

A grim warning for some Texans today: They'll face "certain death" from approaching Hurricane Ike if they don't evacuate.

Ike is a Category 2 storm but could become a "major" Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the upper Texas coast by midnight, according to the National Weather Service. Its surge has already reached the coast and is threatening the Galveston Island sea wall, AccuWeather reports.

Ike's effect could extend as far as a 200-mile (322-kilometer) radius from its center. In addition to south Texas, a hurricane warning is in effect in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Ike nearing Texas, spurring evacuations

Nearly 1 million people are evacuating the southeast Texas Gulf coast, with Hurricane Ike forecast to make landfall by late tomorrow or early Saturday.

The storm, which blew a deadly path through the Caribbean over the weekend, could be at Category 3 strength by the time it reaches Texas, AccuWeather forecasts. There are tropical storm watches and warnings from the Mississippi-Alabama border to New Orleans and south Texas, the Web site says.

As of 4 p.m. CDT, Ike was about 510 miles (820 kilometers) east-southeast of Corpus Christi and 400 miles (45 kilometers) east-southeast of Galveston, according to the National Weather Service.


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