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Tiger Woods could make $1.2 million more every year. How? If he'd spend less energy trying to avoid bogeys and aimed for more birdies (no, not the ones in the trees—a stroke under par), according to a forthcoming paper.

Two researchers from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School analyzed info on more than 1.6 million putts on the PGA Tour over four years. They found that when players had the chance for birdie in one shot, they settled for getting par in two shots about 3 percent more often than when they shot to avoid a bogey (and get par).

Let's see if they take the acadmics' advice to be more aggressive when they're on the greens at the USGA U.S. Open Championship starting June 18 at Bethpage State Park in New York.

"When putting for birdie, you realize that, most of the time it's acceptable to make par," Justin Leonard, a pro golfer who has won a dozen PGA Tour tournaments but makes putts for birdie 5.7 percent less often than putts for par, told The New York Times. "When you're putting for par, there's probably a greater sense of urgency… not to drop a shot."

The researchers found that sense of urgency played out in the data. Birdie putts more often ended up short of hole, a finding that matches up with the concept of Prospect Theory, which holds that people are more likely to be cautious when aiming for a gain than avoiding a loss.

The concept of loss aversion is well known in psychology and behavioral economics. In study after study, people have proven that they focus more on avoiding a loss than scoring a potential gain.

And in golf, despite all else being equal—the distance, the scoring of strokes, the high-dollar prizes and brightly colored pants—even pro putters fell prey to the irrational (although less often than do greener golfers). The paper found that Tiger Woods himself missed a chance at birdie 3.6 percent more often than shots at par.

Golf isn't the only sport that traps athletes into emotional decisions. A paper [pdf] from the Texas A&M Mays Business School found that major league baseball managers too often take the score into account when deciding whether to attempt stealing second base. They found that teams already in the lead were willing to risk more to avoid losing than teams that needed to catch up. Indeed, the pang of an avoidable loss lingers longer than the rush of an expected victory.

Image of Tiger Woods putting on the green courtesy of Jim Epler via Flickr

4 Comments

1. 1. crnaonline 09:55 PM 6/17/09

   I feel that the study failed to consider that a birdie putt will almost always be a longer, and therefore more difficult putt, than a par putt. This is due to the fact that each hole is designed to be played in a specific number of strokes (par). If you have a birdie putt you have used one less stroke to get to that position than if you were putting for par. If the authors could provide a mean distance for each of the two categories of putts I believe my theory would be proven,
   
   Tim

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2. 2. jbairddo 09:35 AM 6/18/09

   They analyzed 1.6 million putts, why wouldn't they have matched the length and make all variables equal? Great study and matches what Kevin Hogan has been saying for years about loss avoidance being a bigger motivator for people than gain. Whether this info could be of use to golfers is the real question. The subconscious is what it is, and without a way to access it (hypnosis), you can't not do what it wants to. Most of our decisions in life are based on this and totally irrational. If you could take the emotion out of such things, your life would become much easier.

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3. 3. innofuture 10:58 PM 6/18/09

   A great parallel for business innovation. I would like a psychologist (would i believe them?) to compare the state of being confident about winning - not much competition - and the state of desperation - nothing to loose? This is why innovation in Australia is on mediocre ground: we are a small league but we are not 'hungry' enough to push the boundaries.

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4. 4. raffgolfpro 03:22 PM 7/13/09

   I READ THE COMPLETE REPORT A FEW MONTHS AGO AND THE PERCENTAGES WERE FOR PUTTS OF LIKE DISTANCES.

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