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Feb 3, 2009 06:05 PM | 17
Was last year's devastating China earthquake, which killed 80,000 people and left more than 5 million homeless, really just a tragic natural event? Speculation is growing that the magnitude-7.9 quake may have actually been triggered by the tremendous water weight behind a nearby dam.
Scientists in China and the U.S. say that water behind the Zipingpu Dam, just 3.4 miles (5.5 kilometers) from the epicenter of the May 12 quake in Sichuan in southern China, may have weakened the fault that ruptured, the British Telegraph reports today.
It's "very likely" that the construction and filling of the reservoir in 2004 led to the quake, Fan Xiao, chief engineer of the Sichuan Geology and Mineral Bureau in Chengdu, told the newspaper.
Two dam-related factors may have sparked the earthquake: Water from the dam that lubricated — and weakened — the Beichuan fault line, and a dramatic decline in water levels between December 2007 and last May, according to a paper published in December in a Chinese journal, Geology and Seismology. Science reported on that research last month, and also noted a talk by Christian Klose, a Columbia University geophysical hazards researcher, who told the annual American Geophysical Union meeting in December that several hundred million tons of water would have put "25 times" the stress of natural tectonic movements on the fault line.
Klose did not answer his phone at Columbia and did not immediately respond to an email this afternoon. In October, Klose wrote on his blog that "a major question is whether this earthquake might have been triggered by these mass changes" in water accumulation near the epicenter. "But, scientific evidence for such a statement is needed! Some questions need to be answered: How much water was impounded, where and when? Did resulting stress changes alter stresses deep in the Earth's crust? Were stress alterations significantly large enough? Where was the highest seismic energy release — close to the reservoir?"
There is precedent for dam-related quakes, Science notes. A magnitude-6.3 quake in India in 1967 that killed 200 people was caused by impoundment behind the country's Koyna Dam. The Chinese government, however, has insisted that its construction projects have nothing to do with the quake, the Telegraph reports.
Daughters of a man who was trapped in a collapsed building beg for him to be rescued following Sichuan quake/Miniwiki via Wikimedia Commons
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17 Comments
Add Comment"a Columbia University geophysical hazards researcher"? Try to find this guy on Columbia U site! I wonder how Science would publish this scam without looking into it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTaki assumes a scam.. why? The researcher mentioned (Christian Klose) appears to have credible publications to his name. It seems plausible that a newly introduced large body of water could have some effect on the local geology, especially in an area with known fault lines.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisUmm, a scam? What scam would this be, who would benifit?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI understand you are probably uptight about AGW taki, but just because you see the word environment and man in the same sentence doesn't mean you have to sound your alarms. No one is claiming anything, they just say its a strong posibility that man indirectly caused this earthquake, by chance as well. Humans couldn't have known about this, we need to learn from it. His website doesn't list researcher for Colombia, but if you go to their site and simply search for his name, you see lectures hes given. Researcher doesn't mean professor.
This just shows you how people jump the gun on their conspiracy theories, that was a very scientific claim you have there taki.
Figures from the USGS Earthquake database indicate that 5/12/08 was the biggest total cumulative worldwide magnitude for earthquakes between 4-10 since 26 Dec 2004. Worldwide 5/12 total was 1,204.4 for all earthquakes Mg 4-10. Average total Mg for the rest of the days of May 08 is 210.5. For comparison, 26 Dec 2004 (day of the 9.0 event off W. coast Sumatra) total was 1517.9. So what? Earthquake 'swarm' days like these happen periodically, endangering even more folks who live in quake-prone areas.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTaki, Dr. Klose's email is listed on Columbia's directory as ck2204@columbia.edu and my email did not bounce back.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI think he presents some very interesting research and the mainstream media should really focus on this rather than that single CA woman with 14+ children.. I also read his abstract from the AGU. This is important stuff. Do we have any other academics on this blog. Would like to read more about your point of view.
I have to say the way Sci Am publish the article is very irresponsible. It clearly shows how deeply political desire is involved into scientific community ....
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI don't think it has anything to do with who knew what, when. I think it has more to do with who profitted from building this dam on a known fault line. Don't forget that oil companies put and continues to put pipelines across wilderness areas, destroying the natural migration routes of species that are the life-blood of the people and other animals in those wilderness areas. It all goes back to profit. the line is, "He who dies with the most toys wins." Who profitted from the dam?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisChrisCon, did you notice Mr.Klose is listed under biomedical department?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOK, maybe you are right, we should take a look at his abstract. Wait a minute, "It has low deformation rates of less than 1.0�1.0 mm yr-1 resulting in no major seismic activity during the Quaternary period. " ?! Why I remember I learned that this Longmen Shan fault is located between the Tibet Plateau and Sichuan basin, and has been going through land shaping along Quaternary period ? And here,
http://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/SFgate/SFgate?&listenv=table&multiple=1&range=1&directget=1&application=fm08&database=%2Fdata%2Fepubs%2Fwais%2Findexes%2Ffm08%2Ffm08&maxhits=200&=%22T24B%22
more than one article shows that there is evidence of rupture in less than 10kyr in the area?
Oh, I must be wrong, because this Mr.Klose, who failed to convince his listener during AGU conference, indeed has an active mailbox under CU server.
By the way, Mr.Klose' another article is disputed here,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V61-4RTW3W9-4&_user=576687&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000029364&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=576687&md5=90d17d96c50412cb2182ec187c0aff2e
In sectioin 3.1 of this article, Mr.Klose' ignorance (or blindness?) on local geological record is pointed out.
And this is how "jump to the gun", agenthucky, or maybe because I can?
As a geologist, I would say that this is quite plausible. Introducing water into previously stable fault systems can increase the effective pore pressure within the strata and can lead to failure. Proven? No. But possible? Very.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTaki, thanks for the link. Nice misleading comments too. Klose wrote a response to the authors that you failed to mention.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V61-4RW439Y-1&_user=18704&_coverDate=05%2F15%2F2008&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=browse&_cdi=5801&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=1&_refLink=Y&_acct=C000002018&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=18704&md5=9052413686809aeee3818cf1b834fe61
Klose explained in greater detail that their data was incomplete. He also repeated what Australian seismologist already know - the area where they have massive coal mining (Newcastle) is a seismic hazard region in comparison to the rest of NSW.
The USGS lists the focus depth as 19km. At the speed groundwater moves, I highly doubt it could travel that deep in 4 years. Denver CO experienced an increase in detectable earthquakes back in the mid-20th century however when the Rocky Mtn Arsenal was playing around with disposal of radioactive waste fluids by pumping them into bedrock/basement: check out "http://www.colorado.edu/conflict/full_text_search/AllCRCDocs/94-58.htm"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI wonder how much research was don on the fault and the surrounding terrain before the dam was built. To my thinking building a dam on top of what could be an active fault is irresponsible, be it in China, the US or anywhere else in the world
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thiscare to explain?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt has been an unquantifable concern that I have voiced, that titanitic shifts could result from the tremendous the water weight along with the cement and oil displacment on a global scale. Patrice, Bermuda.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThis has been an unquantifiable concern, that the tremendous weight of the water displacement, along with the cement and oil on a global scale, could cause seismic shifts. Patrice, Bermuda
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn Able for this to be proven true we need to do man-induced experiments on the Hayward Fault or the New Madrid Fault to prove that Man-Induce quakes can Happen.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this