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The H1N1 swine flu could kill as many as 90,000 Americans and land up to 1.8 million in the hospital, according to a report issued yesterday by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).

The findings are "not a prediction," the authors make clear, but rather "a plausible scenario" to help ready the country's government and health care system.

The advisors estimate that 40 to 60 percent of the U.S. population could contract the virus this fall and winter, compared with the average of 5 to 20 who get the seasonal flu. "The absolute number of deaths is expected to be at least as high, if not substantially higher than for the seasonal flu," simply because more people are likely to get the H1N1 swine flu than the seasonal flu, the authors write.

"It is not possible to predict how the 2009-H1N1 influenza virus or the upcoming influenza season will play out, but it is best that we plan and prepare for a resurgence," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said in a prepared statement.

The advisory group recommends the selection of a White House staffer to oversee the coordination of the government's efforts to mitigate the flu's impact. A key goal will be "ensuring that the nation's complex and distributed healthcare systems are prepared to deal with the potential surge in demand, especially with respect to critical care," the group writes. The flu may send as many as 300,000 patients to intensive care units (ICU) filling between half and 100 percent of the country's ICU beds. Should the plausible scenario prove even marginally accurate, hospitals will find themselves squeezed, as about 80 percent of those beds are usually filled already by patients with other medical problems, according to the report.

Those in the medical community are aware of the sweeping challenges the H1N1 flu could present to the country. "This is going to be fairly serious," Harold Varmus, co-chair of PCAST, told The Washington Post. "It's going to stress every aspect of our health system."

Napolitano, whose position was named in the report as the suggested White House influenza coordinator, said, "H1N1 influenza has the potential to affect virtually every aspect of our lives, from our economy and national security to our education system."

Image courtesy of iStockphoto/WillSelarep

8 Comments

1. 1. Ric Brown 02:58 PM 8/25/09

   As a safety and health professional working for a municipal government, I was surprised to find that a rather extensive pandemic plan for dealing with local outbreaks has been in place for several years. It is reviewed periodically but the current H1N1 threat has caused fairly major parts of it to actually be implemented. Hopefully, many other municipalities have been equally proactive in preparing for what we may be facing.

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2. 2. David Bruggeman 03:35 PM 8/25/09

   Actually, the report recommends that the President's Homeland Security Adviser, not the Secretary of Homeland Security, be the point person on the influenza effort.

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3. 3. David Bruggeman 04:45 PM 8/25/09

   Actually, the report recommends that the President's Homeland Security Adviser, not the Secretary of Homeland Security, be the point person on the influenza effort.

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4. 4. hotblack 11:12 AM 8/26/09

   Overpopulation.

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5. 5. rwilliston 03:28 PM 8/26/09

   Most of our problems in the world are a result of overpopulation. If only we'd all follow China's lead and restrict ourselves to one child until the problem is cured.

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6. 6. Tan Boon Tee 11:08 PM 8/26/09

   The report says it is plausible that 40 to 60% of the US population will contact H1N1 in the coming months. If so, it will have a nasty adverse impact on the already battered economy and stretch the medical care to extremes.
   
   Indeed, what has the government done (or will do) to arrest the spread of the flu?
   
   Otherwise, it could be construed as yet another over-hyped warning, with perhaps the intention of instilling unnecessary fear among the people.
   

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7. 7. Grasshopper1 06:07 PM 8/27/09

   If this article is true (which it probably is), then most- if not all- schools will close. Nobody will want to go out of their buildings. It will be like a citywide lock-down.
   

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8. 8. elderlybloke 07:27 PM 8/29/09

   Here in New Zealand, (it's down in the South Pacific) we have been having our winter flu season .
   It is now declining according to a graph on the Ministry of Health site, getting down to the usual flu rate.
   
   Only 19 deaths from H1N1, compared to about 100 per year from "usual" flu. (Out of a population of 4 million)
   
   We seem to have got off lightly, maybe due to the actions of Min of Health and people behaving sensibly- taking notice of the precautions we should all take.
   
   If you do the same , maybe you will get through it without a disaster.
   Good Luck.

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