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Dec 30, 2008 04:30 PM | 61
Any disaster fiend will tell you that Yellowstone National Park is long overdue for a monster eruption that could leave as much as half the U.S. under a blanket of ash. And there are rumblings the big one could be imminent in the wake of a series of 30-plus mini-earthquakes in the park over the past few days—too weak to be felt by humans for the most part but picked up by the seismometers at the University of Utah.
After all, the geologic record shows that the giant caldera we affectionately call Yellowstone has blown every 600,000 years or so over the past 2 million years. The last big eruption? About 640,000 years ago when the park spit out about 240 cubic miles worth of rock, dirt, magma and other stuff.
But don't panic yet. Although the earthquake swarm continues, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, the volcano alert level remains normal. And a slew of larger earthquakes have occurred throughout the western U.S., Alaska, Puerto Rico and even Pennsylvania in the past week without incident, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
In recent years, Yellowstone's caldera has been rising thanks to uplifting magma beneath it—leading to more cracks, hot springs and even more frequent eruptions of Steamboat Geysers. Paired with the earthquakes, such magma movement might presage an eruption—either big or small. Unfortunately, scientists can't really predict when the next such eruption will happen, and the range of possibilities is large: from later today to a million years from now.
How will we know if we should start worrying? The real warning signs will be rapid changes in the shape of the ground as well as volcanic gases leaking from the ground, neither of which have been sighted—yet.
"Eruptions are far enough apart that there is a very low probability of the next eruption happening in our lifetimes or anytime soon," Daniel Dzurisin of the USGS told me in 2006. "The flipside is: [Yellowstone] has been active for millions of years and it's going to erupt again sometime."
Credit: ©iStockphoto.com/Steve Geer
Tags:
supervolcano,
yellowstone,
caldera,
earthquake
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61 Comments
Add CommentI have taken several geology classes and have been interested in Yellowstone all my life, being from Wyoming myself, but there is something I do not understand. It is rercorded as a shield volcano, just like Hawaii, yet Hawaiian eruptions are small and reralively safe, free of ash. It makes me wonder what it is that makes Yellowstone so much more volatile and dangerous, why everyone fears it so much.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere's been plenty of video stuff on the Tube over the past year or two about this. Most of it has been pretty far fetched and sensational. Watching, often has had me thinking about running out of the house to prepare for imminent disaster. The same thing with meteors and asteroids. Mostly, I just enjoy exploring all of these interesting ideas now a days. I began reading SciAm when I was 10 years old in 1952 because of interesting revelations like this one, and I learned an interesting way of doing long division from the magazine around age 13 so I could skunk a really smart friend of my in school. Great fun that was!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisJohn Lindsey
Fredericksburg, Va
If I remember correctly Hawaii is called a "hot spot", place where the Pacific plate is passing over an active but relatively small and isolated area in the asthenosphere, a layer within the mantle. The lava is the faster flowing and less violent of the two types of lava. The isolation, size and fluid lava results in a series of islands as the plate passes over it. On the other hand Yellowstone sits over a large pool of magma. The lighter continental rocks above the magma act as a cap. When the supervolcano blows it will be much more violent. Think of a cork coming out of a champagne bottle, after all it's almost New Years. The violence is due to the buildup of pressure and the size of the pool of magma. Hope this helps.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAbout the Yellowstone Supervolcano: It's over an explosive "caldera", which mean cooking pot in spanish, a chamber of magma 34 by 45 miles. Some examples of a much smaller explosive calderas erupting is Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo. The last large one to erupt was Lake Tubo which caused a volcanic winter that came close to wiping out the human race. Kilauea on the other hand is over a non-explosive caldera; the magma fed into the chamber is basalt which very poor in silica so it's not as thick and can drain regularly in lava flows.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishow can you have taken several geology classes without learning about supervolcanos? this should give some basic info on them if you want
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/supervolcano/interactive/interactive.html
It takes a new science, a tenable, believable one to explain the difference. The big island of Hawaii has massive magma pools under the island acquired by the pivot point rotation of a massive ice cap that covered the Pacific "hollow", that was left after the moon forming collision 4 and 1/2 billion years ago. That same Ice cap 18 miles high and 6 miles into the lithosphere would , according to albert Enstein cause the crust to move toward the equator. This movement over billions of years would create the "folded moountains" which has created the overthrust over thrust belt and the yellowstone area. The Ice cap moved inland pushing up the colorado plateau,covering 4 states. In Wyoming the magma field and the calderas trail off to the west. The heat of friction moving the land left the footpring of the massive magma buildup and release. The massive eruptions are over. Delano's Discovery [goggle me]
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou are correct not to worry. Everyone has pattern recognition,and the idea of a dated eruption at Yellowstone 700,000 years ago is in your favor.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Yellowstone area is part of the The 'Lewis overthrust" of Montana, the next state to the north of wyoming. It is called an overthrust because the land is upside down. This 500 mile long, Thousands of feet high, weighing eight hundred thousand billion tons, and containing some of the glorius scenery in the world, must have been uplifted from the west and slid across country for at least thirthfive to forty miles. The moving ice cap from the Pacific would freeze the ocean preceeding the major ice mountain , and gentally surround the mass and move it the required distance at a rate of 6 inches per year. It would take 35 -40 million years to move the overthrusr. Delano's Discovery:[google delano Discovery-landforms]
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/43.45.-111.-109.php
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone_full.html
Here’s the pertinent links to Yellowstone EQ reports. The quakes continue today and it’s not just that there are so many quakes, all but a few quakes are within a mile or two of each other and at every depth between 7.2 km and the surface suggesting pressurized movement along the same chimney right down to the magma chamber at ~ 8 km. The recorded movements may be from heated water or magma but even if only a single magma vent is established, it could depressurize the magma chamber to the point of explosive release of gases from the magma to create the super volcano effect across the whole 70 km caldera.
Beyond the global volcanic winter devastating agriculture and the deaths/disease inflicted on all breathing animals from ash inhalation, I am concerned that water pumps cooling nuclear reactors will not survive for long with significant ash contamination in feed water and there should be a plan to dissipate latent heat in reactor cores and spent fuel storage pools given that the heat from radioactive decay will have to be actively dissipated for months after reactor shut down. The only apparent method of preventing the eventual melting and release of the nuclear fuel is to create enough reserve clean water storage to allow long term/continuous containment vessel blow down, (temperature-lowering depressurization of the reactor core by releasing radioactive steam into the containment structure and then into the air), and replacement of evaporated water from spent fuel storage. Although nuclear plants are required to have this reserve water storage, it is already being used to cool spent fuel rods not originally intended for onsite storage and is therefore not available for blow down replacement as that would allow spent fuel to melt. New covered reserve water pools capable of sustaining heavy wet ash loads must therefore be built across the U.S. to accommodate this ash scenario and these reserve pools would have to be considerably larger for longer term blow down and spent fuel cooling. If the nukes are not secured, just add 600 years for the major fission fragments to decay over 20 half lives, (450,000 years for Plutonium to decay to acceptible levels), to the multiple decades of devastation caused by the ash cloud. Katrina would be seen as a comparative lunchtime picnic in a light breeze.
If you don't mind my asking, are you a Christian? I'm asking because Bible prophecy predicts similar events around 2012. Thank you for your response.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSo did the Mayans. So did Nostradamus. You don't have to be a Christian to know about 2012. I don't know where I'm-a gonna go when da volcano blow!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI live on the edge of Yellowstone (as the crow flies) I follow the earthquakes in the region fairly closely. This latest swarm is unusual to say the least. What it means nobody knows, but I have bought a bottle of whiskey just in case.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisInstead of worrying about it (assuming that the currently observed swarm does not result in an eruption), we ought to do something about it. As an engineer, the easiest thing I can think of is to keep building geothermal power plants powered by the Rankine (i.e. water to steam to water) cycle or the Brayton (air) cycle. We would get a lot of power out of it, and help cool it at the same time.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI am thinking of a series of U shaped pipes/holes with increasing depth over a period of time. This is easily doable if the political will is available.
There are few things more delightful than reading intelligent well written articles and intelligent well written responses. An incredible improvement of the pseudo scientific articles in large portions of the media and nonsensical responses by people who have never studied the topic
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe difference is size: Yellowstone's magma chamber is huge
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisPlease confine yourself to discussions of the topic at hand.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAttempting to hijack this to be a forum for your pet problem ( nuclear reactors, in your case) is not appropriate.
delano59, for someone who is promoting an alternative to plate tectonics (probably a reworking of Hapgood’s disproved Earth Crust Displacement hypothesis from the 50's), I shouldn't have to point out that an overthrust isn't "land [that] is upside down". An overthrust is just a plain old shallow thrust fault with large lateral displacement. I should also point out the Pacific Ocean is about 90 million years old in spite of your assertion that it was filled with REALLY big glaciers about 4.5 billion years ago. Your kooky Obama Google hijack, abundant typos ("albert Enstein"?) and grammatical errors don't enhance your credibility either.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThat aside, the situation at Yellowstone is a bit unnerving. I'd hate to see that Discovery Channel program "Supervolcano" come to pass...
Jerry, it's a real pity that your tertiary education as a geologist excluded any semblance of spelling. Surely you should know how to spell the very words that are specific to your field of endevour. Tectonic, rift, subduction and cataclysmic are all geological terms. Methinks you're simply a 2012 scaremonger trying to inject your ill-formed prophecies into a thoughtful discussion
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisJerry, don't they teach geologists to spell these days?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisre:yellowstone
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMany of you "experts" seem to be missing a key element about history.
6 billion people now live on this planet. Ask yourself if our actions have altered ecology, resources, other species etc.?
Everything is interconnected, therefore, earth as an organism will not be uneffected by the "human virus"
Could the environment at Yellowstone be prime for tapping geothermal energy. There seem to be an abundance of geothermal resources there.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisJerry and deleno59:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat are you guys smoking? I want some!
Hey people: can someone explain why the seismometers are now all silent at Yellowsone Vocano Observatory and why no one is commenting on the obvious harmonic tremor recordings? Something is going on, and we are being cut off from information.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI've been following this for several days at several sites. The topic of the day I'd say- why are the sensors out at the Utah station that records the earthquakes?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe economy has clearly taken a toll on many people, especially on their finances. The last thing anyone would want to do is to take out a payday loan, his or her emergency resource, to fix drywall. And sometimes emergency situations pop-up without our prior permission, and it comes in different faces such as storms or earthquakes. Earthquakes have the potential to cause a great and sudden loss to the people because devastation can occur in just a minute. The 1886 earthquake in Charleston was the most damaging earthquake to ever occur in the eastern United States. In terms of lives lost, human suffering, and devastation, this was the most destructive United States earthquake in the 19th century. And last week, a small earthquake hit Charleston with a magnitude of 3.6 on the Richter scale. 3.6 arent a disaster, and the damage caused by the quake has been slight compared to other quakes that have hit the US. A minor shaking, damage and injuries have been reported. Earthquakes are notoriously tricky, if not impossible to predict, as they can't be detected until it is almost too late. You can read the article called "Charleston Earthquake | Payday Will Be Spent Fixing Drywall", on the <a title="Charleston Earthquake|Payday Will Be Spent Fixing Drywall" rev="vote-for" href="http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2008/12/16/charleston-earthquake-payday-will-be-spent-fixing-drywall/">payday loan</a> news blog at personalmoneystore.com.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe economy has clearly taken a toll on many people, especially on their finances. The last thing anyone would want to do is to take out a payday loan, his or her emergency resource, to fix drywall. And sometimes emergency situations pop-up without our prior permission, and it comes in different faces such as storms or earthquakes. Earthquakes have the potential to cause a great and sudden loss to the people because devastation can occur in just a minute. The 1886 earthquake in Charleston was the most damaging earthquake to ever occur in the eastern United States. In terms of lives lost, human suffering, and devastation, this was the most destructive United States earthquake in the 19th century. And last week, a small earthquake hit Charleston with a magnitude of 3.6 on the Richter scale. 3.6 aren’t a disaster, and the damage caused by the quake has been slight compared to other quakes that have hit the US. A minor shaking, damage and injuries have been reported. Earthquakes are notoriously tricky, if not impossible to predict, as they can't be detected until it is almost too late. You can read the article called "Charleston Earthquake | Payday Will Be Spent Fixing Drywall", on the <a title="Charleston Earthquake|Payday Will Be Spent Fixing Drywall" rev="vote-for" href="http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2008/12/16/charleston-earthquake-payday-will-be-spent-fixing-drywall/">payday loan</a> news blog at personalmoneystore.com.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"In recent years, Yellowstone's caldera has been rising thanks to uplifting magma beneath it"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Thanks to..."? I think this journalist means "due to" -- don't you? Such "sloppy writing" is the real calamity in my book. Next, we'll read: "thanks to the super-volcano explosion, two-thirds of North American has been put out of operation."
Yeah, the difference between geologic time and human time is immense. If it erupted 5000yrs from now that would be recent in geologic time but in human time we were building the pyramids in Egypt, relatively ancient times.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf it does blow there are a few things to keep in mind.
1) When Toba went off about 76,000 yrs ago, we went from a population of over a million humans spread from Europe to India to Africa down to roughly 5000 humans surviving in East Africa from whom we are all decended from today.
2) When Tambora went off in 1816 it caused the Year Without a Summer. Tambora was relatively small compared to the smallest of eruptions at Yellowstone. If it goes off be prepared for at least 5yrs with no crops. Needless to say with a population of over 6 billion that would get really ugly, with canabalism rampant. It has happened before in history from volcanism for those that think that's a little extreme.
3) Odds are we will go into a glacial period, or even ice age, so dress warm.
The Shield volcano theory is the old scientific theory taught in school books and even at Yellowstone up until about 10 years ago. Although I have heard that some park rangers still prefer to tell the shield volcano story because it does not scare off visitors and get envirormentalists scared about all the animals we have herded into a giant volcano.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe new theory, based on new scientific evidence in the supervolcano theory. While this has never been seen by modern man, the geological proof is overwhelming .
The Shield volcano theory is the old scientific theory taught in school books and even at Yellowstone up until about 10 years ago. Although I have heard that some park rangers still prefer to tell the shield volcano story because it does not scare off visitors and get envirormentalists scared about all the animals we have herded into a giant volcano.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe new theory, based on new scientific evidence in the supervolcano theory. While this has never been seen by modern man, the geological proof is overwhelming .
"Could the environment at Yellowstone be prime for tapping geothermal energy? There seem to be an abundance of geothermal resources there."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf I understand super volcanos properly, if you poke a hole to far in and release any presure, the whole things blows. SO it would be really dangerous to do this.
Jerry,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat is going to happen to the planet's gravitation in 2012? Do I detect an air of mysticism aka Nostradamus in your reply?
If you can show me data within the next 3 weeks that show another episode of a series of mini-quakes followed by 2 more episodes within 2 months, then I would consider that the magma chamber has sufficient energy to cause a catastrophic event.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf you can show me data within the next 3 weeks that show another episode of a series of mini-quakes followed by 2 more episodes within 2 months, then I would consider that the magma chamber has sufficient energy to cause a catastrophic event.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EP7Cnx0xoqw
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EP7Cnx0xoqw
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe magma in Yellowstone, as I've seen in documentaries, is full of desolved gasses. As the magma reaches the surface, the gasses explode, much like a bottle of soda pop that's been shaken up. The magma in Hawaii has no dissolved gas.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe difference is that the Hawaiian volcanoes spew basaltic magma, and the magma underlying the Yellowstone area is granitic -- much thicker -- a volcanic eruption of granitic material is explosive. Volcanic emissions of basaltic magma (thinner stuff) are NEVER explosive.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOh yea pschoen. I feel much better.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisA geologist, maybe, but with very limited knowledge of the night sky or the solar system in general. Indeed, John Gribbin in the late 1970's wrote a book entitled The Jupiter Effect which predicted the end of the world would occur in 1983 due a once in a millennium planetary alignment. Of course, the world obviously did not end in 1983! It will not end in 2012. It hasn't ended in all of the planetary alignments in the past millions of years, so why would 2012 be any different?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Earth has had many violate eruptions of which a few come to mine. The Toba eruption has been thought to have almost pushed our species to the edge of extension and forced the deaths of stupid humans, allowing the smart ones to survive and procreate. Maybe a Yellowstone eruption will put an end to the welfare system we enjoy. Its hard to find the handicap parking spot under three feet of ash.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is a pleasure to hear so many scientific responses. As far as Yellostone's supervolcano is concerned; I hope it goes off soon. I would rather die from natural causes than from nuclear conditions. I would have greater hope for the human race. We would all die peacefully; with very few exceptions. Nature rules.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisUsing nuclear weapons, we could create man made volcanoes to release pressure in a controlled fashion. If we are smart we could even harvest the thermal energy. On the other hand we could do nothing and hope for the best. It would be good to know what plans are in place to mitigate such danger.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisPerhaps by using nuclear weapons, we could create man made volcanoes to release pressure in a controlled fashion. If we are smart we could even harvest the thermal energy. On the other hand we could do nothing and hope for the best. It would be good to know what plans are in place to mitigate such danger.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisyou need to pull your head out from the rocks! & Pay attention! -- you have studied or have been interested in Yellowstone but don't know anything about it? Sorry but that's weird. I am from Florida and have just started watching this for one week and know more about it than you!! Again just plain WEIRD!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe smart thing to do would be to create a large hole in the ground located at our best guess for the center of the caldera. I'm talking miles wide by miles deep. This will give us both a closer observation point for an impending eruption and a potential 'relief valve' to allow for a smaller, more controlled eruption in the future. Of course I can't imagine congress ever getting behind the 'destruction' of old faithful for this purpose.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou are correct!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thiswww.thehorizonproject.com
You are correct!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thiswww.thehorizonproject.com
Your bible does not include hard dates; thus, you cannot say--even approximately--when (and even if, for another matter), in actual numeric date terms, "predicted" events will occur.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt could be lava rising up to the crater or techtonic microsisms
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe microseisms could be magma rising toward the crater or of tectonic nature of plates trying to fit
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFuller8- where in the Bible does it say anything remotely like that? 2012? Prove it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFuller8 - You obviously never actually read the bible because the only timeline given for such disasters is in the book of revelations and it had a hard limit of 1,000 years which expired over a thousand years ago. Lay off of the mind altering drugs before you do some serious harm to yourself.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisgk2009 - Um, no. Nostradamus never gave dates. He gave generalized astronomical alignments and vague hints. He never mentions a specific year or even century. His predictions are very vague and generalized. The only one that I have read that comes close to being convincing is the one where he calls an evil dictator by the name of "Histler". The drawback with that is that his name was Schickelgruber and not actually Hitler. Hitler was his mother's last name and he took it as an adult because he hated his father. The rest of the predictions of Nostradamus are so vague that anything could be made to fit them.
spock - How delightfully egocentric and arrogant. If we use your arguement then all of the changes to the Earth are due to rats because their population has grown greatly in the last couple of millenia.
Elias V. - Did you pay Sci Am for posting your stupid commercial?
William F. Kean?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWilliam F. Kean?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHas anyone seen the article on KULR TV in Montana yet, In regards to the $ 1,000,000 yellowstone lake study being done by the government?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisKULR-8 TV just written yesterday
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI was just at a lava flow in Hawai'i and tried to explain the olivine crystals within the dark matrix to a friend of mine, but was at a loss for lay terms and gave my good old explanation given by Dr. Kean. My friend couldn't grasp it and I too must not understand if I cannot explain it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYellowstone's magma, like that of most continental volcanoes, is largely composed of crustal material, mostly silica, that has been melted by upwelling basalt. Crustal melting incorporates plenty of and water and other volatile gasses into the mix, leading to viscous, gassy (violent) eruptions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe mid-ocean floor is largely basaltic, so little the magma/lave tends to be low in silica and much more fluid. Temperatures are higher too, so viscosity is further reduced. Gas content is reduced and what there is can escape more readily w/o building up to catastrophic levels.
My question is: Has anyone commissioned a Mechanical Properties Log on the rocks over Yellowstone. This would tell you how how much pressure it would take to fracture the rocks over the Caldera. Also it would give you an indication of how much deformation the surface would have for a likely breakout.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIts a super volcano
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe comment above about nuclear power risks if the volcano blows is seriously WRONG nonsense. The quickest gneration after maybe Hydro to shut down is a nuclear reactor, you drop the rods neutrons are absorbed and it goes sub critical and stops generating heat. Period. Its residual thermal capacity is far smaller than a fossil powered plant and the fuel rods themselves are simply hot, not burning, so cool down very fast when fission stops instantly the control rods go in. Like switching off an electric fire. As with everything anti nuclear, its written as if its true by people with no understanding of the engineering and physical reality. Nuclear power is FAR safer than coal in a multitude of ways from fuel extraction through heat extraction via steam to drive the regular turbines used by all generation, nuclear puts much less radioactivity into the environment than coal and creates far less waste(1GW refines enough U-235 to fuel a similar sized nuclear plant - out of the coal into its gas and ash, largely uncontrolled - or 1 Chernobyl of radiocativity in 1GW coal plant emissions every 7 years). Nuclear weapon protestors transferring their prejudices, fact and science free, to unrelated nuclear power caused more coal fired power, hence pollution and global warming. To find out more just go the site of US Senator Lamar Alexander and read his paper collection in plain English "Going to War in Sailboats". There are sensible informed Americans who can read the science and do the maths - and write words of wisdom. Brian Catt CEng, CPhys, MBA
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this