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Kim Jong-il, the eccentric 67 year-old North Korean tyrant who has lived a life of excess as his people starved, is reportedly suffering from pancreatic cancer.

The pancreas is the long, tapered organ best known for producing insulin to regulate blood sugar, but it also creates enzymes that help people break down proteins and fats.

Rumors have long been circulating about Kim’s poor health, including a report last year that the government went as far as to fake photos to demonstrate the leader’s vitality.  Last night, the South Korean Network YTN reported that intelligence officials in Seoul and Beijing determined that the self-proclaimed “Dear Leader” has cancer.  So far, South Korea’s spy agency has not confirmed the report.

Kim was reportedly diagnosed 12 months ago at the same time he suffered a stroke, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports. And at a recent public event in Pyongyang, he was said to appear gaunt and weak.

If the reports are true, Gerard Blobe, an oncologist at the Duke University Medical Center in Durham, N.C., who specializes in colon and pancreatic cancers, says that Kim’s prognosis is not good.

“Pretty much everyone diagnosed with pancreatic cancer ends up dying,” he says. Pancreatic cancer kills nearly 30,000 patients per year in the U.S., making it the fourth leading cause of death.

Doctors diagnose the disease through a CT scan or an endoscopic ultrasound, but it is rarely caught in its early, more treatable stage. When they do catch it early, a combination of chemotherapy, radiation therapy and surgery allows patients to live an average of 16 to 18 months, Blobe says.

But in 90 percent of pancreatic cancer cases, the tumor has already spread to organs such as the liver. If Kim already looks weak, Blobe says, the cancer has probably already metastasized. “With state-of-the-art chemo, if he has metastatic disease he might make it eight or nine months.”

For more information on what makes pancreatic cancer so deadly, read our Ask the Experts from last year.

Image of Kim Jong-Il from xiaojiecha via Flickr

12 Comments

1. 1. fischbay 01:58 PM 7/13/09

   I'm a hospital pharmacist spending a good part of each day working with oncologists. I fail to see the role of a scientific journal using medical professionals to predict the end of life of anyone. This reads as "Oh good, he has pancreatic cancer and our experts say he shouldn't last long".
   
   Bob Fischer

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2. 2. FKM 02:23 PM 7/13/09

   "Oh good, he has pancreatic cancer " Im sure my grand children will sleep better because of it!

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3. 3. FKM 02:24 PM 7/13/09

   "Oh good, he has pancreatic cancer " My grandchildren will sleep better because of it!

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4. 4. candide in reply to FKM 02:42 PM 7/13/09

   You may say and believe that, but it is not Science.
   
   Has Rupert Murdoch bought SciAm?

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5. 5. hotblack 02:43 PM 7/13/09

   That's the first pleasant photo I've seen of the crazy ol bastard.
   
   Just once I'd like to see a pic of him dressed by someone other than my car mechanic.

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6. 6. Oji in reply to fischbay 03:35 PM 7/13/09

   Sci Am often provides a brief "science behind the headlines" article. This is one of those: fairly factual; more information than (say) the BBC news report on Kim's health; somewhat less than a more specialist, in-depth article. If it didn't mention Kim, it would seem pretty neutral, I guess.
   
   Apart from the introductory statement about him being a tyrant, which is pretty objective, there is nothing I can see that can be interpreted as "oh good, he is dying".
   
   If Kim was reported as suffering from something more treatable and Sci Am did a similar story, would they be criticised for "hoping he gets better soon"?

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7. 7. candide in reply to Oji 04:23 PM 7/13/09

   How about:
   
   "Rumors have long been circulating about Kim’s poor health, including a report last year that the government went as far as to fake photos to demonstrate the leader’s vitality."
   
   Where is the science in that statement?
   
   Or:
   "Kim was reportedly diagnosed 1....
   And at a recent public event in Pyongyang, he was said to appear gaunt and weak."
   "If the reports are true, Gerard ...."
   
   SciAm is just repeating what other sites have 'reported' - where is the Science in those statements?
   
   
   
   Face it, SciAm is becoming just like any other website, the "science" part of its name has to be taken with a large grain of sodium chloride.

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8. 8. Soccerdad in reply to fischbay 04:39 PM 7/13/09

   fischbay,
   
   I agree that it's unfortunate that the article reads like "Oh good, he has pancreatic cancer and our experts say he shouldn't last long".
   
   It should read "He has pancreatic cancer and our experts say he shouldn't last long" That's fantastic!! Our joy is indescribable."
   
   Actually, I wish they would have commented on his prospects given the state of the medical system in NK. Hopefully it will hasten things along.

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9. 9. PeterT 07:59 PM 7/13/09

   Totally Baloney comments.
   
   I love the statement in the article that says "Everyone diagnosed with pancreatic cancer ends up dying." The FACT IS; everyone diagnosed with GOOD HEALTH ends up DYING."
   
   PeterT

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10. 10. fischbay 08:34 PM 7/13/09

    Actually you can find more credible data on pancreatic cancer from NCCN.org . I suspect Gerard Blobe is not a clinical oncologist nor board cirtified to practice as one given the link provided by Sci Am.

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11. 11. David__s in reply to PeterT 07:42 AM 7/14/09

    That's not exact. At least 25% (if not more) of the people ever born are still alive.
    

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12. 12. David__s in reply to PeterT 07:42 AM 7/14/09

    Not exactly. More than 25% of the people ever born are still alive.

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