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[Below is the original script. But a few changes may have been made during the recording of this audio podcast.]
Artificial intelligence works to replicate our human mind (and a lot more). So scientists need to know how humans make their next moves. And while predicting behavior is inherent in AI, prediction itself is not often an end goal for AI.
But recently scientists have created a system that can predict the bets of gamblers, with an accuracy bordering on spooky. Their research was published in the Journal of Gambling Studies.
Researchers used data from a total of 675 online games from six Texas Holdem gamblers. They built a mathematically simulated neural network based on the players’ initial several plays. Meaning the network learns and rewires itself based on guesses that either turn out to be right or wrong. This method of AI is called propagation of error.
They found that their neural model could predict each of the six gamblers bet amounts with an accuracy to three decimal places of the dollar. Additionally they could also predict with similar accuracy their cumulative wins/losses.
So based on their first few games, the gamblers subsequent behavior, strategy and ultimately their wins and losses, was consistently predictable.
Proves, yet again, sadly there’s no magic in gambling.
—Christie Nicholson
(via Mind Hacks)
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3 Comments
Add CommentUnfortunately, this model did not predict the effects of bankers gambling on the bubble of house prices before the crash...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI'd like to know more about the players they took data from, and the nature of the games they were playing at the time.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf they had been applying game theory to their actions then their bet sizes would have been sufficiently random as to defy profitable prediction.
On the other hand, you only do this in poker when you don't know you have a big enough skill edge over your opponents - if these players knew they were sufficiently better than their opponents then they would allow themselves to be predictable (and hence exploitable) in order to maximize their returns from the lessor players who don't know how to exploit the informtion they are providing.
Net result - this article doesn't really tell us anything about the quality of the experiment or its results.
This is not so much about gambling as it is about the effectiveness of different strategies. Because poker is not simply a game of chance, it's a game of skill. The chance evens out, and you can "bet" that the most skilled strategist will win most in the end. Which if I'm not mistaken is essentially what this study predicted.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe conclusion that there's no magic in gambling was a non sequitur. Try to use this system with blackjack or roulette and see what's predictable.