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The Best Science Writing Online 2012
Showcasing more than fifty of the most provocative, original, and significant online essays from 2011, The Best Science Writing Online 2012 will change the way...
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[Below is the original script. But a few changes may have been made during the recording of this audio podcast.]
The people of the world will drive some two billion cars by 2030, up from roughly 700 million today. One of the leading hopes for avoiding greenhouse gas overload from all those tailpipe emissions is electric cars.
From the Chevy Volt to the Tesla Roadster, cars that run on battery power rather than gasoline are fueling hopes for a cleaner transportation future. Even if we switched all U.S. cars to run on electricity from coal-fired power plants we'd emit less than we do now, according to a study from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
But, in terms of economics, are we trading peak oil for peak lithium? Lithium is, obviously, a primary component of the lithium ion batteries powering the first generation of electric cars. The bulk of it is found in Bolivia.
Even worse, according to some, most of these advanced batteries are made in Asia. In fact, General Motors selected a battery from Korean company LG over American start-up A123Systems for its initial Volt.
But GM, assuming it survives, is also investing in a battery manufacturing plant in Michigan and there are deposits of lithium in the U.S. as well. Peak lithium may yet become a concern but first there would have to be a lot more electric cars on the road.
—David Biello
60-Second Earth is a weekly podcast from Scientific American. Subscribe to this Podcast: RSS | iTunes
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19 Comments
Add CommentUm, really? Because LANL says there is lithium all over the U.S. Isn't it the case that Bolivia simply has the *most accessible* lithium, rather than, say, the "only" lithium? Apparently we've been extracting it from brine pools in Nevada for decades, and there are "large deposits" of it in North Carolina. (LANL's words, here: http://periodic.lanl.gov/elements/3.html )
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI mean yeah, it would be nice to get the cheapest lithium. But hardly anyone is extracting it in Bolivia now, so, it's not like we're that hard up for it.
And everybody knows that lithium dissapears when you use a battery, exactly the same as oil does when you burn it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWow, 2 billion cars, all powered by electricty. I wonder how they will all fit on the roads? Traffic congestion is pretty bad as it is!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAlso, since the electric grid couldn't come close to supplying the power for our current car fleet, I guess we'll be building thousands of new power stations to cater for them, and unless they were all wind or solar powered, then the climate change implications would of course be massive.
All that steel and aluminum will force the price of raw materials sky high too.
You can find any excuse you want for not wanting to build electric cars and getting away from fossil fuel, but the fact is, we do not have to depend on a power grid to power the cars. Have you ever heard of putting a solar panel on the car. When there is no sunshine, then you can plug in the car. Some of you people talk like you are idiots. If we do not quickly get away from carbon fuels, we will not be able to live on this planet. Every day we destroy the means we have of surviving here and most of you say, "its not my problem; let the next generation take care of it." To continue on the path we are on means there may not be a next generation to clean up our mess.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere may be an issue with land ownership. I know that there are places in North Carolina (I am living in NC right now) where you can pan or dig for gold and gems, but the richest areas are on private land. These people (and I use the term loosely) are not exactly willing to let an individual use their properties, much less a company or corporation. They would spend more time in court arguing over money than they would actually mining lithium. Oh and I don't know exactly how lithium is mined, but there may also be environmental issues with it. We would all have to learn more about it before making any sort of decision or forming any opinions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this>>>When there is no sunshine, then you can plug in the car.<<<
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt would be nice if, for once, the people who submit these statements knew something about power plants: knew, for instance, the difference between "base load" plants and "peaking" plants - and showed some awareness about what happens to power demand when the clouds cover the sun if you are trying to get your base load power from solar thermal or solar photovoltaic systems...
We can to use an electromobile now.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAbout technology of exchange discharging batteries: http://al0253.okis.ru/Engl.html -short translation.
http://al0253.okis.ru/ -article.
Lithium ion batteries are worse than lead batteries. All questions to E-mile: al0253@yandex.ru
Concerns regarding Lithium production are valid, yet there are indications that there is no shortage of lithium, only a lack of developed capacity to mine it. As for electric vehicles and the demand on the grid, EV's have been demonstrated to be less of a draw on the grid than plasma TV's. The ability of electric vehicles to provide energy storage and energy demand balancing through vehicle to grid charging is well documented, although only Japan has a plan to exploit this potential on any scale. For more reference information see http://EVtransPortal.org/cerip.html
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAll right, I am guilty of not going all the way through this podcast before commenting -- I see at the very end that the piece mentions lithium reserves in the U.S. that may yet save us.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt's now clear that what's even scarier than peak lithium is the other thing alluded to in this podcast -- that GM might not survive. Can you imagine what would happen to Obama's brave new world of electric vehicles if we don't have a U.S. supplier of plug-in hybrids and a domestic manufacturing base for the batteries they require. [Shudder.]
Lithium is hardly in short supply geologically if it shows up in brine. The mere fact that the exploration industry is not gaga over it tells me that we are buried in the stuff. Sort of like getting excited about platinum until you discover the vast reserves in South Africa as compared to the demand.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMIT has just reported success in fast lithium, making practical electric cars a certainty.
However, isn't burning coal to provide electricity to power electric cars worse than burning gasoline?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBut doesn't burning coal to power electric cars puts out more CO2 than burning gasoline??
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWith nearly 7 billion people on Earth and virtually all of us wanting a high consumption lifestyle, whatever technologies we use are going to have very large, probably unforeseen, consequences. For example, who had even heard of global warming 20 years ago. Nevertheless, all approaches have to be tried, with the marketplace determining which is best for each specific need. In the long run, we have to get our population growth under control -- else we are truly doomed.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLithium shortage?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLithium content of sea water by atomic absorption spectrometry
Angino, Ernest E.; Billings, Gale K.
Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, vol. 30, Issue 2, pp.153-158
Lithium concentration in sea water was determined without prior chemical separation by the use of atomic absorption spectrometry. The average lithium content was 194 g/l. The method gave a standard deviation of 11 /l of Li. Seventy plus samples of sea water from both the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico were analysed. Lithium content showed a slow but steady decrease with depth in samples from both locations and also showed a weak covariance with salinity.
DOI: 10.1016/0016-7037(66)90104-9
Lithium shortage?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLithium content of sea water by atomic absorption spectrometry
Angino, Ernest E.; Billings, Gale K.
Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, vol. 30, Issue 2, pp.153-158
Lithium concentration in sea water was determined without prior chemical separation by the use of atomic absorption spectrometry. The average lithium content was 194 g/l. The method gave a standard deviation of 11 /l of Li. Seventy plus samples of sea water from both the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico were analysed. Lithium content showed a slow but steady decrease with depth in samples from both locations and also showed a weak covariance with salinity.
DOI: 10.1016/0016-7037(66)90104-9
The trouble with electric cars is the same as that for fossil fuel cars : Customers want ever-better acceleration and top speed. Energy efficiency means building smaller, lighter, slower cars which mean manufacturers will get smaller profit margins, as the cars will be cheaper. Otherwise we could have had electric cars years ago. But the car, energy and road construction companies have made sure that they have not been produced...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere are already well thought out plans to use off-peak power to charge SUV's and use plugged in SUV's as a reserve power source, so "the grid can't do it" is a non-issue. Land ownership? Ever hear of selling mineral rights? for the right amount, land owners will come around, so that, too, is a non-issue. In any case, getting lithium out of lithium silicate minerals on a large scale will be prohibitively expensive compared to getting it from brine. Per atom, it's about as abundant as copper, so it's hardly rare. But since lithium atoms are light, it looks deceptively uncommon on a weight basis (why chemists persist in listing abundances by weight baffles me, since everything has to be converted to atomic basis to be of any use). Since we haven't had overwhelming demand for lithium in the past, there are probably a lot more unnoticed reserves. And don't forget sea water. Although the concentration is less than 1 ppm, it's already present in ionic form, not bound to other elements, and just needs to be concentrated.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"We could have had electric cars long ago." Sure. If you want a huge bank of heavy, slow charging and short lived lead acid batteries. It's time to bury this myth. "Who killed the electric car?" The electric car as it was 10-15 years ago killed the electric car. "Customers want ever-better acceleration and top speed. Energy efficiency means building smaller, lighter, slower cars" ... which customers wouldn't buy because they want big, heavy, fast cars.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Analysis of Lithium's geological resource base shows that there is insufficient Lithium available in the Earth's crust to sustain Electric Vehicle manufacture in the volumes required, based solely on LiIon batteries...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritize these alternative battery technologies."
http://tyler.blogware.com/lithium_shortage.pdf