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Was the extreme heat and dryness of the summer of 2012 the result of climate change?
“It’s the old problem of saying any one event is the result of climate change.” That’s James McCarthy, professor of biological oceanography at Harvard and current president of the board of the Union of Concerned Scientists, speaking September 21st in New York City at an event hosted by the Union.
“We have been locked in a two year now strong La Nina cycle. The La Nina cycle brings more aridity to the center of continents. Would it have been, from previous La Ninas, likely to be as dry as it is now, setting record after record of number of days over 100 degrees, number of days without rain?
“This year we actually hit a point where there were 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere. If it was more like 350 or maybe 280, which is what it was in the middle of the 19th century, would this have been as likely? And we’d say no, the odds of this would have been far less likely. It could have still occurred, but it would have been an extremely rare event. And as we look forward, this is going to be more common.”
—Steve Mirsky
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]
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4 Comments
Add CommentAnd when all is said and not much done, we count the short term damages, weigh the long term impacts, and lamely hope that we will soon get back to "normal". And without a doubt, at 400 ppm, it is going to be more common... but if and when it becomes rare event upon rare event, extends beyond a season or two, we don't get recovery, or we simply swing from "rare" hot dry summers to extreme winter events and back to hot dry summers? Any predictions on what it will take for the climate change deniers to give it up? Nah, like waiting for creationists to give up the creation of dinosaurs on the sixth day, after the birds on the fourth(?) day, brought 2x2 onto Noah's ark to become extinct post Flood while Noah's family inbreeds to repopulate the entire planet. Dinosaurs in the Garden of Eden... no climate change since then, right? Anyway, glad that Scientific American isn't pulling the punches, less and less "alleged" climate change. "And as we look forward, this is going to be more common." How will we be judged by the future generations?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this@priddseren, do you just ignore the 400 ppm (and rising)? Do you even bother to speculate what burning half the planet's oil reserves is doing? What burning the coal reserves will do? These are carbon sinks that took millions of years to form and burning them in a couple of hundred years is like cow farts and human body warmth to you? Wow.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNice try geojellyroll. How many regional events in how many parts of the world constitute global climate anything? global climate averages? global climate changes? Of course it happens region by region over time. What is the alternative? One summer comes along and one whole hemisphere heats up? And you really limited yourself with your mention of drought, as if climate change is only about droughts, or even record high temperatures. The reports are coming in from all over the world. At least this time you used the word region. In the past you've tried to minimize by using the word local. It is cumulative, over time, millions of bits of data, from all over the world. But you already know this. You have touted your geology more than once in these commentaries. Seems your intent is to ridicule. Your "sarcasm" about aliens only in the U.S. really misses the mark. Pyramids of Egypt, statues on Easter Island, Nazca lines in S. America, the face on Mars, the list is international and even extraterrestrial. But then again, the television transmissions that the aliens are tuning into were first broadcast from the United States so maybe there IS a connection and that when they decide to make contact they will already have learned English. Back to 400 ppm and rising...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"The extreme heat and dryness of the summer of 2012" was the result of climate change. But “global dimming” and not global warming caused the climate change. "Global dimming" is due to smoke near the equator. China and India are burning incredible amounts of smoke-generating coal, which is blocking sunlight, which cools the surface at the equator, which causes less evaporation, and thus fewer clouds. Fewer clouds transport less moisture north and south. Fewer clouds cause hot and dry weather since fewer clouds do not block the sun as often.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisCarbon dioxide cannot be blamed since CO2 already blocks all 15-micron photons. Dr. Hertzberg has a file about the lynching of carbon dioxide, which can be viewed at http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/hertzberg.pdf