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The Best Science Writing Online 2012
Showcasing more than fifty of the most provocative, original, and significant online essays from 2011, The Best Science Writing Online 2012 will change the way...
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This week, the U.S. government slapped tariffs (pdf) of more than 31 percent on the price of solar cells made by Chinese companies that cooperated with a recent probe. Those companies that stayed mum face even higher tariffs—as much as 250 percent.
Why? The feds suggest that Chinese solar companies are selling their modules at less than fair value. (pdf)
In 2011 alone, we imported more than 93 million photovoltaic modules from China, thanks to prices that fell below $1 per watt.
Raising that price through tariffs might prevent more U.S. solar companies from going bankrupt like Solyndra and Unisolar did. But the tariffs will also mean higher prices for U.S. customers who want solar power—whether homeowners or utilities.
High prices have been the main reason that solar power still accounts for less than 1 percent of U.S. electricity. And high prices mean our nation will continue to convert only slowly from relying on electricity derived from burning fossil fuels to relying more on electricity derived directly from the sun.
Given that the world has a large and growing problem with greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change, that's not a good outcome for the planet.
—David Biello
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]
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28 Comments
Add CommentIt always amuses me when I read an article that points out, without condemning the circumstances underpinning it, the fact that a even a 'free' market economy has its boundaries, and here, as always, national concerns outweigh international ones. Let's face it, any altruism that surfaces, is either short-lived or conditional, usually both. We've all just been royally screwed all over the western world by the banks' collective error of judgement, and all we can do, is pin the responsibility for the bail-out on Mr Man-on-the-Street (as usual)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI don't know how we can moderate excessive misanthropic capitalism, but we sure as hell need to, or the whole house of cards will come crashing down
timbosa, I wouldn't say "national concerns outweigh international ones". I woud rather say that the profit margins of a few ineffective American photovoltaic producers outweigh the welfare of the American public and most of the solar industry, since most profits and jobs are in panel installation, not production.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBut what's worse is that many shares of PV producers are actually held by oil companies. That's right. We subsidize the oil industry and tax the solar industry. That's the American way.
This article is taking an extremely simplistic view of the issue. Solar Power is not 'carbon free' by a long stretch. Huge amounts of oil and other fossil fuels are required to manufacture these things, after all. Mining, smelting, purifying the silicon, and assembling the components all make use of the existing industrial infrastructure. Worse yet, the energy required to manufacture vs. the energy eventually produced by the cells yields a very poor - in some cases, negative - energy return. Any discussion of 'renewable' energy resources must take this into some account to be credible. EROEI - Energy Return On Energy Invested - is not even mentioned here. This is a puff piece for the Solar Industry, as it is constituted today. It's never going to work the way it is currently conceived anyway.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSponia, once the solar panel is produced, it lasts for over 20 years and, I believe recycling along with future improvements in design (multilayers) will increase efficiency while not costing anywhere near as much as the original product.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thiswhat are the politics here.....I don't have anyway to know the whole truth but I read an article a while back that indicated moneyed lobbyists working for China and it's manufacturers convinced Congress to help kill the US solar power industry by starving funding in order to gain a monopoly in that industry.....true or not I don't know.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWell, I'll believe it is worthwhile when the Solar Panel company begins using nothing but power produced from their own panels to manufacture more cells. Until then, it is a net energy sink, not a source. While the theoretical life of a Cell is 20 years, that doesn't include the mounting or the rest of the system. In practice the panels do not last nearly this long. And you still need trucks and earth movers to produce and transport the raw materials; these only run on oil.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNot to mention there is no Solar Battery technology either. Solar might have a small benefit while the sun shines; but at least 12 of the 24 hours are dark. If you look at the numbers, we will need to cover the entire face of the US to replace just a fraction of the energy we are now using. This is not a solution, it is more like a distraction.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Japanese are working on just such a project. Let's wish them the best of luck! http://phys.org/news/2010-12-sahara-aims-power-world.html
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs for the mounting, I have an antenna on my roof that's 40 years old and still functioning. In any event, I would think a person would be pretty foolhardy to get rid of a panel because the mounting needed maintenance.
The Japanese project minimizes the transportation costs.
@Sponia, you're facts are just not accurate.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"To calculate the energy generated by one solar panel over its lifetime, which is approximately twenty years, we multiplied the amount of energy the solar panel produces per year by twenty years.
Energy produced by one solar panel: 162 kWh/year (given)
162 kWh/ year * 20 years = 3240 kWh
Over its lifetime the solar panel produces approximately 3240 kWh "
Energy input required to build that same panel is 577.5 kWh, so the actual EROEI is around 6. Even if you use less optimistic figures for power output and lifetime you aren't even going to get close to your stated 0 or less EROEI.
As for the whole 'covering the US' that is nonsense. An array covering one small corner of Nevada would easily supply all US energy needs with current tech right now today. Of course that would be hugely expensive etc and well beyond production capacity, but it is FAR from the ridiculous proposition you make it out to be.
Storage and transmission are interesting engineering challenges, but frankly the transmission system will have to be built anyway, and the storage systems actually SAVE money, even with our current generating mix. Doubtless the investment is large, but the returns are also potentially equally large.
Now, extrapolate all this to 10 years from now solar tech, it isn't even a contest anymore. Wind is the only thing close at that point. Maybe dry geothermal if anyone can get over their paranoia about earthquakes (which is mostly silly).
northern Calif PG&E has some of the largest geothermal fields in the nation...earthquakes in that area in the category of 1 to 3+ are a daily occurrence....not large but also not non-existant.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this@grandpa
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYes, entirely true, OTOH those aren't really exactly a problem except they make people nervous. No real property damage. Also that's a geologically active area, maybe not the best choice, though certainly 'low hanging fruit' in terms of power for the investment.
The meat of dry geothermal is in being able to simply go to any given spot, sans some really unfavorable geology, and sink a hole deep enough to generate power. My guess is that in most of those spots there isn't going to be much of an issue with seismic activity.
There are unknowns though. While the technology is pretty straightforward we don't have a lot of experience with this yet. However the rewards are potentially pretty large too. If you can site your generating capacity with high flexibility, and even sub in steam generated this way at existing coal/oil plants, you can get some really good results.
Again, it is easy to ignore the real costs of the system as a whole. No one has yet devised a way to store sunlight; it has to be converted to electricity first. The very best cells acheive a theoretical maximum of 18%. This is at the panel, not after the losses incurred in the battery. How long do the batteries last? Five years on average. Perhaps a panel or two will exceed the average - but not the entire population of them.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNo one has ever built a solar powered, or for that matter, a battery powered bulldozer. The reason is that Oil has a very high concentration of energy. Batteries do not have a high enough power to weight ratio - and barring a miracle, never will. Sunlight is a very diffuse form of Energy. The amount of collection, and concentration, and storage, and transport involved is tremendously higher for Solar for this very reason. Talking about different forms of Energy without recognizing the fundamental differences in the quality of these forms is naive.
What is missing here is a real understanding of just how much energy we are using. The content, and especially the concentration, of energy in 20 million plus barrels of oil a day is not achievable with any current technology.
Of course, you can pretend that somehow we will 'discover' a miraculous technology that overcomes these problems. The odds are very low for this however.
I wish the Japanese luck, in their attempts. With the Nuclear debacle they have on their hands they of all people certainly need a miracle to solve their energy issues.
Why would any manufacturer sell at or below cost?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisC'mon people! Perhaps no one else has noticed that $0.25 gasoline once produced a market dependent on a product and its suppliers - what's the price of gas now?
If China is allowed to eliminate potential competitors by selling below cost (if in fact they are), what do you think that would do to future photovoltaics prices when Chinese manufacturers are the only high volume producers?
Why would any manufacturer sell at or below cost?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisC'mon people! Perhaps no one else has noticed that $0.25 gasoline once produced a market dependent on a product and its suppliers - what's the price of gas now?
If China is allowed to eliminate potential competitors by selling below cost (if in fact they are), what do you think that would do to future photovoltaics prices when Chinese manufacturers are the only high volume producers?
This is just sooooo stupid. I want to slap the people responsible. Profit profit profit greed greed greed. I get so frustrated with this idiocy I am incapable of reasoned, thoughtful commentary.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThis is just sooooo stupid. Profit profit profit greed greed greed. Of all the things *THEY* might put tariffs on, this takes the cake. I get so frustrated with the idiocy of the people responsible for this sort of ruling that I become incapable of reasoned, thoughtful commentary and all I can think of are names that I can't print here or my comment will get deleted. AAAAaaaarrrrrggggghhhhhh!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOops. I'm repeating myself. The first comment didn't appear until after I posted the second version. Apologies. Still, maybe it needed repeating. :)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou're not suggesting that the Chinese manufacturers or any photovoltaic supplier is not operating on a for-profit basis, are you? Why would any commercial enterprise offer their products at or below cost? Yes - for (long term) profit & greed!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHas anyone looked to see why the tarifs were added. It is not because American companies are inefficient. It is because China massively subsidized their solar manufacturers. American companies were nearly as cost effective as the Chinese even with the Chinese subsidies. The Chinese were simply aiming at putting the Americans out of business and monopolizing the market as a result. The Chinese were using US technology to kill our business. Yes solar panels will for the moment cost more but as time passes US companies will continue to lower cost because we continue to invest in new technology. Investing in new technology is predicated upon making a profit from one's efforts.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHi,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisCan I point out that Lobbiest in your houses of Government Offices hark'in on the old ways. Oil is so yesterday. Those that these lobbiest work for take a chip off the block to line their own pockets before any money is ever seen. Do you think anyone is going to release the market share they enjoy? Look at the Obesity Epidemic sweeping your country. It does have a proximity effect on Canada; However If our Priminister is the Man he says he is Canada will prosper without the greedy pork stained fingers of a dying entity within our society.If ya'll want to do something give the dirty oil to the industrial military and those rouge black opperitive governments who think they can control everything, we the people get the Solar industry as civilians. In essance I'm trying to say drop the dumb tarrifs it will hurt in the end. Get ready for a big change!
I must say your research is exxcellent and provocitive. You say, 'Storage and transmission are interesting engineering challenges', This can have an easy solution. If an individual or community buys an companion system to compress the very air we breath enough to liquify Hydrogen ..what ya got? Oh wait other gasses! Oh and hey if enough were around surprise they could also be scrubbing the air ....Sounds pretty good to me!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSure there maybe some crazy's that would perhaps try to destroy something so grand but if enough were released @ a reasonable price ...end of problem ...hello free energy.
However ...again you have Lobbiest for Big Oil telling the Prez and the Houses of whatever there're called, "hey Solar would hurt the bottom line" or saying 'we can't help it if our nation is dying because of Obesity'. Frigging corrupt and laughable.
Just release your need for greed brah :)
It is more than politics it is manufactured ignorance by our government and industry which you can read more about be checking out: Agnotology, the making and unmaking of ignorance by Proctor and Schiebing. Awesome, enlightening book.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOK I got censored guess I need to rephrase:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisJohn Lennon : Imagine: please have a listen!
If I make a solar power system do you think batteries are a good option for storage? No... Yeah me to I think battery tech is poor right now.
If I bought a companion system that used the energy from solar to compress and store the air we breath, into hydrogen or other gasses ,into liquid. What then, some Crazy coming along...some 'terrorist' as the saying goes, to destroy such a system?
Now my brother over there buys same type of system. 'Hey' I have fuel there and here for my transportation needs. My friend does the same and so does his friend. What then, Anarchy from the position of a Big Oil lobbyist or a Nuclear power lobbyist or any lobbyist who gets their pay from an energy sector power supplier. They are going to say 'Oh bad everything is going to blow up' Yeah that's real clever; That position saves his job and protects his employer from competition. Is that capitalism?
Imagine a world where the initial costs of such a system are finite and the laws that a lobbyist are able to influence are minimalistic. Now being such a system is purchased by an individual the resulting power is theirs to do as they see fit...I Love capitalism. But we all know if such a system were available any energy company would be screaming or have a law that makes it so Big Oil or nuclear interests would have their hand in my pie. Lobbyist would be called, Politicians influenced by graft/corruption nothing changed. Red tape and rhetoric abound. Yet another smog filled day in your world.
It doesn't have to be like this there is plenty of money to go around.
Solutions are available all come with risk look at Japans plight or Chernobyl. Industrial military - I point to evidence of your technology that will leave an imprint on out world for eons. I love the technology but dislike the impacts of disasters.
IF Oil is required let the industrial military along with the Black Ops Government that runs them use it. If you all want to play with Nuclear take it to the moon! Leave the Solar tech to civilians; we need to heal our planet now please!
In my eyes a Lobbyist is an influence peddler ..it's corrupt and harmful when the truth is hidden by a section of society. Clearly Solar has the advantage in sustainability....
The Commitments 'Chain of fools!' please have a listen! Shame, Shame, Shame....
"the theoretical life of a Cell is 20 years, that doesn't include the mounting or the rest of the system."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMy brother built his house in 1989 and is on his third solar system. It's a money pit but it's his hobby and he likes the challenge. He figured it's cost him about 6 times the price of conventional electricity in dollars and literally hundreds of hours of research, labor, etc. (that he doesn't mind). Even after all that, he needs to stay on the grid for some of his power.
Warning re 'new' panels, systems, etc. Don't assume the companies will still be around in 2 years when you need a part... and don't assume you'll pick up the phone and find an electrician or plumber who isn't going to charge you big dollars for his time trying to figure out your problems. Solar is a 'do it yourself' scenario unless you want a money pit.
Your failure to look beyond your nose is strikingly similar to our government. Promoting solar will result in a higher percentage of developmental money to continually improve the technology. Putting your head in the sand will result in the world passing you by in the interim. Look at American computer tech, space tech, electronic tech (including celular). We used to be on the forefront of development, but like most things, our fat,lackadaisical American attitudes have let the world pass us by. Only a moron would tax solar tech that would in short order, positively affect the American bottom line. Sounds like American government to me.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI couldn't agree with Mr. Bielo more. As Steve Jobs and Jefferson Davis rightly pointed out, we can't live as well as we'd like without slave labor. What's more important, a lovely, cheap IPad or a decent standard of living for those who make it? If I have to pay 31% more for solar cells, I won't be able to put as much gas in my 400hp car.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe tariffs are all good. Now the Chinese can use the overproduction to put consumer owned rooftops on their own small business citizen residences. Already being the largest electric vehicle manufacturer on earth, it will be good to see them riding n the free power of the sun long before America "gets it". Go China!!! Use the interest from US loans to build a solid solar PV infrastructure. Free energy from natural sunshine for millions. Yes! Wake up Taiwan, now you can also dump your low cost goods while the US solar price gougers do their dirty work.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf the Chinese use the overproduction of solar cells to cut into their world leading use of coal fired power generation plants then the tariffs will be good for the planet, won't they?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this