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A recurrence of the 1859 solar superstorm would be a cosmic Katrina, causing billions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids and radio communications
July 28, 2008 | 17
The main body of plasma takes hours or days to reach Earth, But an advance blast of energetic particles hits almost immediately. CME arrives at Earth with a glancing blow because of the solar longitude of its source; its magnetic orientation is northward....[More]
Greenwich and Kew magnetic observatories detect disturbances followed immediately by geomagnetic chaos; second CME arrives at Earth within 17.5 hours, traveling at 2,380 kilometers per second with southward magnetic orientation; auroras appear as far south as Venezuela....[More]
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17 Comments
Add CommentWhy is the sky always falling? Is it related to scientist's desire to be 'needed', or does it just sell magazines?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThis is a great article! Thanks!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTopics like asteroid impact or increased solar activity aren't approachable by the average person, because they don't occur frequently. Yet, we know the potential exists for many types of extreme natural events, and now that the human population is so great and spread out across the planet, the next big event is very likely to have a great impact on humans. (No pun intended.)
Studying the sun and understanding solar cycles, is important, given that we've only been closely monitoring them in recent history. We rely heavily on space, and space-bourne technology. I think anyone reading this article should have that impressed upon them. Most non-scientists don't know enough about the topic to understand why we should rightfully pay attention and worry. When I teach my students about the sun, they are amazed at all that goes on. It is much more than a non-descript glowing ball in the sky. :-)
Unfortunately, the sky IS always about to fall. It takes alot of work to keep it from doing so. Scientists aren't "needed" as long as humanity is content being just another species of animal on this planet. If however, people want to truly master the art of survival, then scientists are in fact needed.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHalloween 2003 CME was as not asbig but days later lucked out as SOHO detected another that, had it hit us, would have been the equal of the 1859 storm.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat is the evidence that the next sunspot cycle has indeed already begun this last January?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI understand that the most recent sunspot was number 1000 of the last cycle, and that the next cycle is yet to begin.
What is the evidence that the next sunspot cycle has indeed begun?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is my understanding that the last sunspot, number 1000, was from the last cycle, and that the next cycle has yet to appear.
I was stationed in Germany in 1989, working Tactical Satellite Systems. I had read in the USA Today about the Solar Flares and was taught in Military Communication School, Theory of the Troposphere. We not only lost Communications, but it also caused a Very Big Wind Storm, that ripped out the Radio Towers and "Elephant-Stakes" that held them in the ground. I'm a frim beliver in Solar Flares, and no, the sky isn't falling.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe lastest Theory is, "In the world of science, astronomers are predicting the strongest output of solar activity from the sun in 50 years to occur in 2012" the Mayan Apocalypse. This will be an Apocalypse of sorts when we wont be able to use any Electronics(cell-phones). Then it's back to Pencil and Paper, you do remember them don't you? It's the alignment of the Sun and the Milky Way, something to that effect. Like the song says, "Keep Your Head To The Sky" Peace
The article does make a significant omission - solar storms (even smaller ones) take a cumulative toll on the transformers in our power grid. Transformers in the northern states need to be replaced more frequently than in lower latitudes. If the variable line up and we are hit directly with a solar superstorm, it will take longer than months to repair the damage. The current lead time for large transformers is 3 YEARS and the worldwide capacity is only a few hundred per year. It's not a matter of Chicken Little, it about simple facts. This has happened in the past, it will happen again and our power grid in North America is the most vulnerable because of the extensive grid and our position on the globe. Doing nothing guarantees the worst outcome. After Quebec lost power in the 1989 solar storm, they spent $4.3Billion to upgrade their transmission network and very little was mentioned in the press about it. Thanks to SA for getting the word out and hopefully getting people to take notice.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAn aurora created during magnetic reconnection is a manifestation of energy transfer between solar current and a planet's magnetosphere. Particularly strong aurorae have been observed at the Jupiter's and Saturn's poles. It is possible that the energy exchange between a magnetosphere and the heliospheric current is far greater than previously believed. According to NASA Jupiter radiates twice as much energy as it directly receives from the Sun, this excess energy is possibly supplied by the heliospheric current. The exchange of energy modulates the Alfven's current (which extends to the limits of the heliosphere with its return leg forming a closed circuit along the Sun's surface) resulting in a possible feedback affecting solar surface activity. For more details including some numerical modeling see website: http://www.vukcevic.co.uk and follow link SOLAR CURRENT
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe word theory is inappropriate to describe the "Mayan Apolcalpse'. Alignments are irrelevant as gravity is too weak.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFlare and CMEs are both magnetically driven. Current theories of the impact of the next solar cycle (which has definitely started) range from miniscule to the super-large. Someone will have predicted it correctly, probably just due to luck. We need to invest a lot more scientists time to get to the stage where we can really start predicting space weather
It seems to me, in Australia, that an event such as the 1859 storm will have impacted across the globe, probably more notable in those places where the emissions from the reactions scored a 'direct hit'. Depending on the effect on the Earth's magnetic field, a week or so of significant disturbance could equate to what has been interpreted as the end of the Mayan calendar system. Regardless, it seems to be something that either ourselves or our descendants will experience. I hope humanity triumphs over brutality, common sense over greed and fear. Will any of the 'developed' nations be equipped for the chaos? How much warning will there be?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI have been trying to find a correlation between sunspot activity and the mayan prophcy and there does seem to some evidence to suggest that incresing activity and strength will occour around this date. What I am trying to find out now is evidence of past sunspot activty and relating it to the mayan calender and events that have occoured because of this. Any ides
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSome skepticism is wise, but when it comes from minds under the influence of political propaganda, then I object. This article does not say the threat is imminent, there is no "sky is falling" panic. So making sarcastic remarks about scientists and Scientific American are not justified in this case.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere's no reason to doubt the potential for damage to our infrastructure and economy and thereby our safety. The only question is the probability and timing of geomagnetic super storms. So the first priority should be finding the means to predict with more precision these solar events.
I guess my first question in the area you're talking about would be: are there OTHER predictions of events which DO correlate with significant past events?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn other words, how good a predictor has the Mayan calendar (or any other such system) been?
Just my impression: there've been loads of such supposedly predictive systems over past centuries. The thing is, most of them have been proven to be of no value, while a few have "hit the mark" according to people doing the same kind of study you're doing. Consensus so far is that people just like doing this kind of thing - so chances are that every once in a while - one of these many "predictions" will seem to have come true.
Is there anything that can be done to the design of power ditribution transformers that would make them more tolorent to the direct current magnetization of there core that leads to ecsessive current input.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thiswould a differnt core materiel hold out any hopes, the use of capacitors in series with the input could be used to block the low frequency solar induced current while alowwing the power frequencys thru would do the trick but they would be very large and exspencive but might be justified on high priority circuits.
Dont confuse a coronal mass ejection with sun spots. The Carrington event of 1859 was a CME. We are due for another late 2012 or early 2013. Watch the plasma currents, once they converge on the Suns equator....kaboom!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisVery good article. I also recommend this article from NASA: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn this article, they say longer times are needed to replace "broken" transformers, up to 12 months and more (in line with the time frame presented by Physics01).
Bad thing about this, unless more data is collected, simulations to prepare power grids in order to safely disconnect the main transformers will come overdue.
See you.