Climate Model Predicts More Long Hot Summers

Join Our Community of Science Lovers!

On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.

The heat wave that swept parts of Europe last summer was an anomaly. Parisians in particular are surely hoping it doesn't repeat itself this summer, considering temperatures in the city routinely reached around 40 degrees Celsius for more than 10 days. Findings published online today by the journal Nature, however, do not provide any solace. A new climate model predicts more extreme temperature events for Europe in the coming decades.

Christoph Schar of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich and his colleagues investigated the effects of greenhouse gases on weather variability as well as general overall temperatures. Their results suggest not only that temperatures in central Europe will rise over the next century but also that temperatures will show more variability. In this scenario, extreme summers like the one that befell France in 2003 are more common.

¿Our results demonstrate that the European summer climate might experience a pronounced increase in year-to-year variability in response to greenhouse-gas forcing,¿ the scientists write. Such an escalation, they conclude, ¿would strongly affect the incidence of heat waves and droughts in the future.¿

It’s Time to Stand Up for Science

If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.

I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.

If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.

In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.

There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

Thank you,

David M. Ewalt, Editor in Chief, Scientific American