The International Energy Agency predicts global demand for oil and gas will rise well beyond 2030, marking a sharp departure from the agency’s previous forecasts that demand for oil would peak by 2030.
In a new report, the IEA says low gas prices, growing concerns over energy security and a global lack of ambitious climate policies will delay the peak of the fossil fuel era until at least 2050.
The report comes as world leaders meet in Brazil for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP30, where extreme heat, President Donald Trump’s broad reversal of the U.S.’s climate action policy and a slowing of action to curb emissions are high on the agenda. Last year was the hottest on record and the first to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the report shows. The IEA projects that under current policies, the world is on track for 2.5 to three degrees C of warming by 2100, far above the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperatures below two degrees C.
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The report warns that the 1.5-degree-C target will be out of reach without the removal of carbon dioxide with technologies such as carbon sequestration. The agency says that if countries rapidly scale up renewables, energy efficiency and clean fuel use, however, further warming may still be preventable.
Climate advocates have pointed to other mitigation efforts beyond policy that could muddy the IEA’s forecasting. “There’s a revolution happening right now and it’s in renewables and electrification,” said Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, a London-based energy research organization, to the New York Times. “Scenarios based on policies and legislation are behind the curve of technology change.”
