Right now, an estimated 130 million metric tons of plastic waste enters the air, water, soil, and human bodies every year. By 2040, that number will jump to 280 million metric tons—about a garbage truck’s worth every second, according to a new report from The Pew Charitable Trusts.
That estimate is higher than the group’s previous 2020 prediction, in large part thanks to new data that incorporates plastics used in construction, transportation and agriculture, not just packaging and textiles.
Scientists are increasingly clear on the environmental and health tolls of plastic, with tiny shreds of the material found in the most remote places on Earth and inside our brains. Chemicals used in plastics have been linked to cancer, cardiovascular disease and declining fertility, among other health issues. The health costs from those chemicals are likely reach $1.5 trillion globally, according to the Pew report.
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Current estimates for plastic production would yield waste that would overwhelm existing management systems, the report found, especially as very little plastic is actually recycled.
The report comes months after a global effort to establish a treaty governing plastic production and waste collapsed, with the oil and gas and chemical industries pushing hard against limiting plastic production. Fossil fuel companies have sought to turn more of their products into plastic as the world shifts away from burning these fuels to limit global warming.