To Adapt to Climate Change, Vulnerable Areas Need Better Forecasts

Failures to predict drought and other weather extremes put people in African and small island nations at particular risk

Future Nyamukondiwa inspects a stunted cob in her dry maize field on March 13, 2019, in the Mutoko rural area of Zimbabwe.

Join Our Community of Science Lovers!

Efforts to monitor changes to the climate for adaptation planning are woefully weak worldwide, according to a report by the United Nations and a coalition of agricultural nonprofits.

There are inadequate meteorological and hydrological monitoring systems in place that could help farmers and ranchers better prepare for the onset of droughts and other harsh conditions, the U.N. says, warning that those deficiencies could threaten food supplies.

The findings are part of the U.N.'s inaugural "2019 State of Climate Services" report issued this month. It's the first of its kind and was requested by parties to the previous gathering of governments for negotiations under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Katowice, Poland, in 2018.


On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.


Contributors include the World Meteorological Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Programme, and other institutions that want to see better forecasting and monitoring of drought and fires. Such public information and notification systems can help farmers prepare for extreme events that are being increasingly tied to global warming.

The report says small island states and African countries are particularly exposed to risk by a lack of formal climate and weather monitoring systems.

"Africa faces high risks in the agricultural sector and as regards food security due to its high exposure and vulnerability to climate variability and change," the authors wrote. "African ecosystems are already being affected by climate change, and future impacts are expected to be substantial."

For instance, the World Food Programme is now warning that the sub-Saharan African nation of Zimbabwe is facing acute clean water shortages due to prolonged drought conditions. The drought caught farmers and the government off guard, and WFP says water shortages and dying livestock are affecting "2.2 million people in cities and 5.5 million people in rural villages" in Zimbabwe.

Such crises will become worse without monitoring services that can help inform climate adaptation, the report argues. The benefits for investing in weather and agriculture monitoring systems "outweigh the costs by about 80 to one," says the World Meteorological Organization.

"It is estimated that improved weather, climate, water observations and forecasting could lead to up to USD $30 billion per year in increased global productivity and up to USD $2 billion per year in reduced asset losses," the authors say.

The report was drafted by the WMO's Global Framework for Climate Services unit with the aid of WFP, FAO, the World Bank, the Global Environment Facility, the Green Climate Fund and international agriculture research organizations.

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news a twww.eenews.net.

It’s Time to Stand Up for Science

If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.

I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.

If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.

In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.

There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

Thank you,

David M. Ewalt, Editor in Chief, Scientific American

Subscribe