August 16, 2001

1 min read

Google Logo Add Us On GoogleAdd SciAm

Tobacco Could Eventually Kill a Third of China's Young Men

By Kate Wong

Join Our Community of Science Lovers!

On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.

If present smoking patterns persist, tobacco will kill nearly a third of China's young men over the next few decades, a new study suggests. Researchers published their findings today in the British Medical Journal.

To predict tobacco-induced mortality in China, T.H. Lam of the University of Hong Kong and his colleagues assessed the mortality currently associated with smoking in Hong Kong, which peaked in cigarette consumption some 20 years earlier than mainland China did. The team studied the medical records of more than 27,000 people aged 35 or over who died in 1998, and those of more than 13,000 live control subjects. Tobacco, they found, caused 33 percent of deaths of all males between the ages of 35 and 69, and 5 percent of female deaths; among the male smokers, tobacco caused about half of all deaths.

The hazards evident in Hong Kong, the authors conclude, foreshadow "a large increase in mortality attributable to tobacco in China over the next few decades, unless there is widespread cessation by adults who already smoke."

Kate Wong is an award-winning science writer and senior editor for features at Scientific American, where she has focused on evolution, ecology, anthropology, archaeology, paleontology and animal behavior. She is fascinated by human origins, which she has covered for nearly 30 years. Recently she has become obsessed with birds. Her reporting has taken her to caves in France and Croatia that Neandertals once called home to the shores of Kenya’s Lake Turkana in search of the oldest stone tools in the world, as well as to Madagascar on an expedition to unearth ancient mammals and dinosaurs, the icy waters of Antarctica, where humpback whales feast on krill, and a “Big Day” race around the state of Connecticut to find as many bird species as possible in 24 hours. Wong is co-author, with Donald Johanson, of Lucy’s Legacy: The Quest for Human Origins. She holds a bachelor of science degree in biological anthropology and zoology from the University of Michigan. Follow her on Bluesky @katewong.bsky.social

More by Kate Wong

It’s Time to Stand Up for Science

If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.

I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.

If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.

In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.

There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

Thank you,

David M. Ewalt, Editor in Chief, Scientific American

Subscribe