After more than two years of progress on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the U.S. is on track to record an estimated 2.4 percent increase in 2025 compared with 2024, according to a new Rhodium Group report. The findings indicate the energy costs of the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence data center industry and cryptocurrencies, with emissions tied to the power sector rising by an estimated 3.8 percent in 2025.
Last year’s colder-than-average winter months also drove up demand for heat in buildings, pushing up emissions by 6.8 percent compared with 2024.
“Based on historic and forecasted sectoral consumption data, the largest source of increased electricity use was commercial buildings, where data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large load customers drove electricity demand up by 2.4%,” the analysts write in the report.
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And while transportation contributed more greenhouse gasses than any other sector in 2025, it saw almost no increase in emission levels—likely because more hybrid and electric vehicles were on U.S. roads, the report argues.
Looking ahead, the Trump administration’s sweeping changes to the U.S.’s energy policies and push to open more AI data centers will almost certainly stymie the country’s progress to reducing emissions, the report finds. Last year Rhodium’s analysts predicted that, under what was then the U.S. policy landscape, the country was on track to reduce emissions by somewhere between 38 and 56 percent, compared with 2005 levels, by 2035. Now that estimate has dipped to a 26 to 35 percent reduction by 2035.
“Our longer-term outlook for US GHG emissions changed sharply this past year,” Rhodium’s analysts write in the report.