Was This Summer a Climate Change Event?
James McCarthy, professor of biological oceanography at Harvard, says this summer's record heat and dryness could have occurred with lower atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations--but it would have been highly unlikely. Steve Mirsky reports
Was the extreme heat and dryness of the summer of 2012 the result of climate change?
“It’s the old problem of saying any one event is the result of climate change.” That’s James McCarthy, professor of biological oceanography at Harvard and current president of the board of the Union of Concerned Scientists, speaking September 21st in New York City at an event hosted by the Union.
“We have been locked in a two year now strong La Nina cycle. The La Nina cycle brings more aridity to the center of continents. Would it have been, from previous La Ninas, likely to be as dry as it is now, setting record after record of number of days over 100 degrees, number of days without rain?
On supporting science journalism
If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.
“This year we actually hit a point where there were 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere. If it was more like 350 or maybe 280, which is what it was in the middle of the 19th century, would this have been as likely? And we’d say no, the odds of this would have been far less likely. It could have still occurred, but it would have been an extremely rare event. And as we look forward, this is going to be more common.”
—Steve Mirsky
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast.]
It’s Time to Stand Up for Science
If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.
I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.
If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.
In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.
There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.
