Global Warming Is Not Part of Natural Climate Variability

A common argument among skeptics is put to rest

Pitch Interactive

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People who dismiss climate change often claim that the earth's warm-up is simply part of “natural climate variability.” A paper published in July in Nature puts that argument to rest. The authors show that warm and cold years were regularly interspersed during the past 2,000 years A and that even the warmest and coldest periods were experienced only by isolated regions at a given time—never across the entire globe simultaneously B. For example, the so-called Little Ice Age occurred in the 1400s across the central Pacific Ocean, in the 1600s across northwestern Europe and in the mid-1800s in other places. The warm Medieval Climate Anomaly occurred in the Pacific in the 900s, in North America in the 1000s and in central South America in the 1200s. But the current warm-up has taken place across 98 percent of the globe at the same time, from about 1900 through today. “It's completely different,” states lead researcher Raphael Neukom of the University of Bern in Switzerland. All regions have heated up relentlessly, in unison.

Credit: Pitch Interactive; Source: “No Evidence for Globally Coherent Warm and Cold Periods over the Preindustrial Common Era,” by Raphael Neukom et al., in Nature, Vol. 571; July 25, 2019

Mark Fischetti was a senior editor at Scientific American for nearly 20 years and covered sustainability issues, including climate, environment, energy, and more. He assigned and edited feature articles and news by journalists and scientists and also wrote in those formats. He was founding managing editor of two spin-off magazines: Scientific American Mind and Scientific American Earth 3.0. His 2001 article “Drowning New Orleans” predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. Fischetti has written as a freelancer for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian and many other outlets. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti has a physics degree and has twice served as Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union’s Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism. He has appeared on NBC’s Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many radio stations.

More by Mark Fischetti
Scientific American Magazine Vol 321 Issue 5This article was published with the title “Climate Clincher” in Scientific American Magazine Vol. 321 No. 5 (), p. 86
doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1119-86

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