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May 30, 2018

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Stronger, Wetter, Slower: How Hurricanes Will Change

Experts show how 22 recent hurricanes would be different if they formed near the end of this century

By Mark Fischetti

Steve Starr Getty Images

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If the planet’s climate keeps warming at current rates, by the end of this century Atlantic hurricane rainfall will be 24 percent higher than today. Maximum winds will be 6 percent stronger and the storms will move 9 percent slower, creating significantly more damage. Those are the findings from an international team of experts who modeled 22 hurricanes that hit between 2002 and 2013 and would take a similar track under the warmer conditions. Overall, the number of strong hurricanes occurring in any year would increase.

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Credit: Amanda Montañez; Source: “Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Year Convection-Permitting Pseudo-Global Warming Simulation,” by Ethan D. Gutmann et al., in Journal of Climate, Vol. 31; May 1, 2018

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Mark Fischetti was a senior editor at Scientific American for nearly 20 years and covered sustainability issues, including climate, environment, energy, and more. He assigned and edited feature articles and news by journalists and scientists and also wrote in those formats. He was founding managing editor of two spin-off magazines: Scientific American Mind and Scientific American Earth 3.0. His 2001 article “Drowning New Orleans” predicted the widespread disaster that a storm like Hurricane Katrina would impose on the city. Fischetti has written as a freelancer for the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, Smithsonian and many other outlets. He co-authored the book Weaving the Web with Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, which tells the real story of how the Web was created. He also co-authored The New Killer Diseases with microbiologist Elinor Levy. Fischetti has a physics degree and has twice served as Attaway Fellow in Civic Culture at Centenary College of Louisiana, which awarded him an honorary doctorate. In 2021 he received the American Geophysical Union’s Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism. He has appeared on NBC’s Meet the Press, CNN, the History Channel, NPR News and many radio stations.

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