The Chaos of Predicting Climate Change [Video]

A live Webcast Wednesday will discuss the necessity of chaos theory and supercomputers in modeling climate change

Join Our Community of Science Lovers!

Understanding the future of our planet’s climate is vital but it is easier said than done. To predict such complexity requires cutting-edge models and, according to University of Oxford physicist Tim Palmer, an understanding of chaos theory and supercomputing. Palmer will present a public lecture tonight at 7 P.M. Eastern time that will be broadcast live on this Web page, detailing the difficulties of predicting climate change and the need to embrace a degree of inexactness in modeling it.

Chaos theory is a field of mathematics that studies dynamic systems that can change drastically based on the smallest changes in their initial conditions. Because the future behavior of these systems is completely determined by their initial conditions, they are impossible to accurately predict. Weather and climate is a natural example of a deterministic, dynamic system. “If the flap of a butterfly’s wings can change the course of weather and climate,” Palmer wrote for the talk’s trailer, “what hope do we have trying to predict anything about climate 100 years hence?” Inexact supercomputing, which provides different results for the same input conditions, could be a way of modeling a chaotic system such as climate.

The talk, “Climate Change, Chaos and Inexact Computing,” is part of a public lecture series at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Ontario. Online viewers can pose questions by tweeting to @perimeter and using the #piLIVE hashtag.

On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.

You can view videos of some past Perimeter physics lectures below:
Shape-Shifting Particles: Mysterious Neutrinos [Video] The Hunt for Dark Matter and Dark Energy [Video] Strange, Dense Matter: The Power of Neutron Stars [Video]
How Radioactivity Can Benefit Your Health [Video]
The Promise of Optical Atomic Clocks: Watch Live Wednesday [Video]

The Astonishing Simplicity of Everything [Video]

It’s Time to Stand Up for Science

If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.

I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.

If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.

In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.

There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

Thank you,

David M. Ewalt, Editor in Chief, Scientific American