New Hurricane Forecast Maps to Show Flood Risk from Storm Surge

Join Our Community of Science Lovers!

By Barbara Liston

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - When the Atlantic hurricane season opens June 1, national forecasters will roll out a new feature: color-coded and broadcast-ready maps to graphically show the potential for flooding from storm surges.

"We are not a storm surge savvy nation. Yet storm surge is responsible for over half the deaths in hurricanes. So you can see why we're motivated to try something new," said Jamie Rhome, storm surge specialist for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.


On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.


The maps are the result of years of experience and recent polling that found most Americans living on vulnerable coastlines paid too much attention to hurricane wind strength and not enough to storm surge before deciding whether to evacuate ahead of a storm, Rhome said during an interview at this week's National Hurricane Conference in Orlando.

"If they can see the ocean from their house, you've got a fighting chance of convincing them, hey, the ocean could come into your house. But once you get inland just a few blocks, the overall awareness of storm surge drops precipitously," Rhome added.

Superstorm Sandy's devastation of New York and New Jersey in 2012 and Hurricane Ike's landfall near Galveston, Texas in 2008 most recently highlighted the need for greater focus on the flood risk.

"The Northeast, at least at the time, didn't have a whole lot of experience with hurricanes. When we were trying to communicate just how devastating the surge would be, people had a hard time visualizing the water going into Manhattan," Rhome said.

The new maps, which will be issued 48 hours before landfall and updated every six hours, will enable people to see whether their property is likely to flood. Everything about the maps from the colors, backgrounds and legends were tested in focus groups, Rhome said.

The need for greater education is growing along with coastal population densities and rising sea levels.

"It's clear to me this is going to have a positive impact on how people understand their threat," Rhome said. "Whether or not it causes them to take an action is yet to be seen."

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be quieter than normal, with a below-average number of storms and hurricanes, a leading U.S. hurricane forecasting team said last week.

(Editing by David Adams and Steve Orlofsky)

It’s Time to Stand Up for Science

If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.

I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.

If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.

In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can't-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world's best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.

There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

Thank you,

David M. Ewalt, Editor in Chief, Scientific American

Subscribe